Game 13 Statcap: Lightning 3, Hurricanes 0

The Carolina Hurricanes are a very interesting team to try to analyze.

After carrying play for most of the first period against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and leading in scoring chances and shot attempts, they were unable to solve Ben Bishop for another period (his fourth straight period of no goals allowed to the Canes) and entered the first intermission on home ice knotted up in a 0-0 tie.

After some more back-and-forth play to start the second period, the Lightning got what was maybe the flukiest goal you’ll see in a while, as Victor Hedman angled a slap shot wide off the end boards to the front of the net where Canes netminder Justin Peters knocked it in with his pads to give the Lightning a 1-0 lead and apparently seriously deflate Carolina while simultaneously galvanizing Tampa Bay.

The Fenwick graph shows this pretty clearly — prior to that Hedman goal, the shot attempts were very close, with a slight edge to Carolina. After that Hedman goal, however, the red line (Tampa Bay) jumps ahead and carries a healthy lead the rest of the way.

It’s a shame that Justin Peters — who played really well for much of the night, stopping some excellent Grade-A scoring chances — would give up such a stinker and end up losing because of it. The Lightning were probably a little bit fortunate to get out of this one without allowing a goal, even though Ben Bishop played very well (obviously, stopping all the shots he saw).

The chances ended up 20-16 in favor of the Lightning, so outside that first period where Carolina carried play, the Lightning dominated the game in terms of good looks from in and around the slot (chances were 18-10 in favor of Tampa Bay from the 2nd period on after Carolina won the 1st period 6-2).

The recently reunited trio of Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, and Alex Killorn was terrific again, and there is definitely a sincere and clear argument to be made that Killorn deserves that top line LW spot permanently over Ryan Malone. Stamkos (+13/-7), St. Louis (+13/-5), and Killorn (+11/-5) were able to generate good looks in the slot and around the net seemingly at will against an overmatched Carolina Hurricanes squad, while Ryan Malone (+3/-4) was solid but unimpressive in bottom-6 duty. The Lightning only generated 20 total scoring chances on the night but the top line for Tampa Bay was on the ice for more than half of them, which is both good and bad. It’s nice to see the elite forwards be elite, but it’s just a little troubling that there weren’t more good looks created by the Valtteri Filppula or Tyler Johnson lines.

Fenwick Timeline via Extra Skater

Following is the scoring chance and zone event data we tracked for this game that is, we believe, exclusive to Bolt Statistics:

Lightning Totals

Scoring Chances

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Zone Entries (Even-Strength)

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Zone Exits (Even-Strength)

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Game Logs

Scoring Chances

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Zone Entries (Even-Strength)

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Zone Exits (Even-Strength)

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We’d like to acknowledge utilizing data from the game report produced by Extra Skater and the Scoring Chances and Zone Entry Nexus applications created by Josh Weissbock.

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