Game 11 Statcap: Lightning 4, Panthers 3 (SO)

The final scoring chance count was 19-13 in favor of the Florida Panthers, so like the Fenwick chart shown below, they managed a slight advantage. This can happen however when one team scores a pair of very early goals as Tampa Bay did — couple that with the puzzling Radko Gudas ejection and you have a recipe for a comeback by the Cats.

If you look closely below at the Fenwick graph, you’ll notice near the middle of the second period — right around the halfway point of the game — the Lightning and Panthers were neck-and-neck in terms of shot attempts. This was a close game, despite the 3-1 score. The Cats were forcing the issue but the Bolts were holding serve.

And then this happened.

Scottie Upshall squirted blue Gatorade on Radko Gudas in front of the Florida bench, and Gudas, being the short-fuse guy that he is, slashed his stick across the bench. For that he got a 2-minute slashing minor, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game-misconduct (later rescinded), forcing the Bolts to play the rest of the game with only 5 defensemen.

From that point on, you’ll see the Fenwick graph start to diverge a bit as Florida takes the advantage. This is partly score effects, with the Lightning clinging to a 2-goal lead on the road, and partly purely due to fatigue and unfamiliarity with the remaining Lightning blueliners. Jon Cooper rotated the five guys he had left as best he could, and the Lightning were probably lucky to make it to overtime at all. Credit to Florida for taking advantage of a bad break for the Bolts. This is one drawback to regularly dressing a guy like Radko Gudas, who is capable of these types of outbursts, provoked or not. I would not be at all surprised to see Cooper dress seven defenseman more often in order to protect against this.

Ryan Malone had a rough night, going +3/-8 in even-strength scoring chance differential, and Victor Hedman (+3/-7) and Matt Carle also struggled (+4/-8) but it’s easier to give them a pass given the situation with Gudas. The Lightning’s best skater was Valtteri Filppula (+6/-2) who had a strong game and continues to impress in the second-line center role many had a tough time imagining he could fill.

Fenwick (Unblocked Shots) Timeline via Extra Skater

Following is the scoring chance and zone event data we tracked for this game that is, we believe, exclusive to Bolt Statistics:

Lightning Totals

Scoring Chances

[table “60” not found /]

Zone Entries (Even-Strength)

[table “61” not found /]

Zone Exits (Even-Strength)

[table “62” not found /]

Game Logs

Scoring Chances

[table “55” not found /]

Zone Entries (Even-Strength)

[table “58” not found /]

Zone Exits (Even-Strength)

[table “59” not found /]

We’d like to acknowledge utilizing data from the game report produced by Extra Skater and the Scoring Chances and Zone Entry Nexus applications created by Josh Weissbock.

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