Game 48 Scoring Chances: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers

Note: We’re posting the scoring chance and possession data for each of 2012-2013 season’s games as practice for next season, when we’ll be publishing scoring chance, possession, time on ice and zone events in addition prior to breaking down each match.

Since this our initial post using this subject, if you’re not wading into unfamiliar territory, skip ahead. Otherwise, please read the following for a hasty breakdown of key points:

  • A scoring chance is briefly defined as a “clear play directed towards the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area — loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate).
  • Blocked shots from within the dangerous area are not counted as scoring chances, but missed shots are.
  • Shots from just outside the dangerous area are sometimes counted as scoring chances in various circumstances — such as a play with quick puck movement or a screened goaltender.
  • Skating down the wing and firing a wrist shot — even one from an elite shooter like Steven Stamkos — is almost never counted as a scoring chance, even if it is technically from within the dangerous area, as this type of play is easily stopped by NHL goaltenders. However, if the shooter effectively dekes, cuts to the middle, and/or uses a defenseman as a screen, the resulting shot may be counted as a scoring chance. Ultimately, it is up to the tracker’s discretion.
  • Corsi and Fenwick measure which teams/players have the puck and with what frequency. Scoring chances indicate who is doing good things with the puck when they have it. Thus, scoring chance data helps to contextualize and clarify possession data.
  • In small sample sizes (within one hockey game, for example) a team may dominate Corsi and Fenwick events, which might indicate superior puck possession. But puck possession alone isn’t enough — teams need to create scoring chances to score goals and win games. Typically, over large samples, possession numbers and scoring chance numbers should correlate, because you need the puck in order to create offense with it. But within a game, a team may employ a strategy to shoot the puck from all over the ice, falsely inflating their Fenwick/Corsi scores, while their scoring chance numbers would reveal they weren’t dominating as much as possession data would seem to indicate.

The Lightning led overall in scoring chances over the Panthers by a count of 19-15, including a nice stretch late in the game where they recorded 3 shorthanded chances. Since Jon Cooper has taken over as the head coach, the bottom-6 and penalty killing units have seen something of a possession/scoring chance renaissance, as they continue to shut down opposing lines and generate good looks. BJ Crombeen in particular has more than earned his keep as a versatile forward — he’s no pure enforcer. His role on the PK in particular helped make Adam Hall expendable. He finished this game +3/-4 in chances at even strength.

Also, Victor Hedman continues to impress as a legitimate #1 defenseman. He finished the game a remarkable +8/-3 in even strength scoring chances, and managed 3 more in the plus column while shorthanded, without surrendering a scoring chance against while down a man.

On the other hand, the mismatched pair of Matt Carle and Eric Brewer continues to struggle, particularly at even strength. While at this point it is hard to pinpoint exactly why this pairing isn’t working, the Bolts would benefit greatly if Radko Gudas is ready for a permanent spot in the top-4 next season, preferably alongside Carle, shifting Brewer down to the 5th defenseman. Both Brewer and Carle were +3/-9, and this season has indicated that it is a pairing that ought to be broken up moving forward. The Gudas/Aulie pairing (though not used in this game due to Gudas being sent back to Syracuse to bolster the AHL playoff run) did have a lot of success late in the year, so perhaps breaking them up wouldn’t be the best idea.


Game Summary


Scoring Chance Log

Team Period Time Note Home Away State
Away 1 19:15 Mueller from Huberdeau 91 16 26 2 25 39 11 27 88 17 43 35 5v5
Home 1 18:51 Pouliot breakaway 4 12 67 6 77 39 27 88 82 17 43 35 5v5
Home 1 15:01 Carle, goal 91 16 26 2 25 39 11 57 14 3 23 35 5v5
Away 1 8:19 Howden, save 44 19 76 2 25 39 22 14 76 3 23 35 5v5
Home 1 6:47 Malone off rebound from Hedman, goal 4 12 67 6 77 39 18 42 19 51 72 35 5v5
Home 1 6:31 Tyrell, save 11 17 42 3 28 39 11 57 14 17 43 35 5v5
Away 1 3:07 Bjugstad, goal 91 16 26 2 25 39 15 88 82 17 72 35 5v5
Away 2 19:07 Fleischmann from Huberdeau, goal 91 16 26 2 25 39 11 57 14 51 72 35 5v5
Away 2 17:15 Fleischmann, missed 91 16 26 6 77 39 11 57 14 51 72 35 5v5
Home 2 16:20 Labrie off Crombeen rebound, save 44 19 76 2 25 39 15 88 82 3 23 35 5v5
Away 2 15:27 Matthias from Howden, save 11 17 42 2 25 39 18 42 19 3 23 35 5v5
Home 2 14:13 St. Louis off Purcell rebound, goal 44 19 76 2 25 39 27 22 76 17 43 35 5v5
Away 2 13:11 Mueller backhander, save 44 19 76 2 25 39 15 88 82 3 23 35 5v5
Home 2 12:26 Pouliot from Roy, save 4 12 67 3 28 39 11 57 14 17 43 35 5v5
Home 2 10:48 Labrie deflection, save 44 19 76 6 77 39 18 42 19 17 43 35 5v5
Home 2 9:43 Lecavalier, missed 4 12 67 28 77 39 15 88 82 3 23 35 5v5
Away 2 5:10 Matthias, save 4 12 67 3 28 39 27 22 76 51 72 35 5v5
Home 2 4:32 Hedman, missed 11 17 42 6 77 39 18 42 19 17 43 35 5v5
Away 2 1:36 Petrovic from Fleischmann, save 11 44 25 28 39 11 14 51 72 35 4v4
Home 3 19:30 St. Louis from Purcell, save 91 16 26 6 77 39 11 57 14 51 72 35 5v5
Home 3 16:10 Stamkos from St. Louis, missed 91 16 26 6 77 39 11 27 88 51 72 35 5v5
Away 3 14:32 Selleck, save 4 12 67 3 28 39 18 19 76 17 43 35 5v5
Away 3 14:30 Upshall, goal 44 19 76 2 25 39 27 88 82 17 43 35 5v5
Away 3 13:20 Goc, missed 91 16 26 2 77 39 11 57 14 51 72 35 5v5
Home 3 12:45 Lecavalier jam, save (PP) 4 91 16 26 6 39 57 82 17 43 35 5v4
Home 3 12:40 Stamkos 1 timer, save (PP) 4 91 16 26 6 39 57 82 17 43 35 5v4
Home 3 8:36 St. Louis, save (SH) 42 26 6 77 39 57 82 14 3 51 35 4v5
Home 3 8:29 Hedman, save (SH) 17 91 6 77 39 11 18 88 17 72 35 4v5
Home 3 8:19 Killorn, save (SH) 17 91 6 77 39 11 18 88 17 72 35 4v5
Home 3 6:39 Pouliot from Malone, save 4 12 67 3 28 39 15 42 82 3 23 35 5v5
Away 3 6:08 Fleischmann from Huberdeau, goal 11 17 42 6 77 39 11 57 14 17 43 35 5v5
Away 3 5:00 Shore, save 44 19 76 3 28 39 15 88 82 17 43 35 5v5
Away 3 4:01 Shore, post 91 16 26 2 25 39 15 88 82 43 51 35 5v5
Home 3 1:27 St. Louis, post 44 91 16 26 6 77 15 88 82 17 23 35 5v5


Lightning


Player Summary (Home)

# Player EV + PP + SH +
2 BREWER, ERIC 21:37 3 9 00:00 0 0 01:11 0 0
3 AULIE, KEITH 14:01 3 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
4 LECAVALIER, VINCENT 12:11 5 2 02:22 2 0 00:00 0 0
6 SALO, SAMI 17:01 7 2 01:59 2 0 00:49 3 0
11 PYATT, TOM 13:16 2 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
12 MALONE, RYAN 08:48 5 2 01:38 0 0 00:00 0 0
16 PURCELL, TEDDY 17:16 4 6 01:57 2 0 00:00 0 0
17 KILLORN, ALEX 13:10 2 2 01:47 0 0 00:36 2 0
19 CROMBEEN, B.J. 10:18 3 4 00:00 0 0 00:44 0 0
25 CARLE, MATTHEW 22:01 3 9 02:01 0 0 01:11 0 0
26 ST LOUIS, MARTIN 20:08 4 6 02:22 2 0 00:40 1 0
28 ROY, MATHIEU 14:07 4 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
39 LINDBACK, ANDERS 13 15 2 0 3 0
42 TYRELL, DANA 11:22 2 2 00:00 0 0 00:18 1 0
44 THOMPSON, NATE 12:27 4 5 00:00 0 0 01:01 0 0
67 POULIOT, BENOIT 10:45 5 2 01:38 0 0 00:00 0 0
76 LABRIE, PIERRE-CEDRIC 10:37 3 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
77 HEDMAN, VICTOR 19:14 8 3 02:03 0 0 00:49 3 0
91 STAMKOS, STEVEN 20:28 4 6 02:13 2 0 00:41 2 0


Opponent


Player Summary (Away)

# Player EV + PP + SH +
3 BRENNAN, TJ 12:50 3 4 01:02 0 1 00:00 0 0
11 HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 17:14 6 5 00:41 0 2 00:00 0 0
14 FLEISCHMANN, TOMAS 16:52 6 4 01:19 0 1 00:35 0 0
15 SHORE, DREW 13:17 4 4 00:00 0 0 01:30 0 0
17 KUBA, FILIP 18:54 6 7 00:41 0 2 02:39 0 2
18 MATTHIAS, SHAWN 13:20 2 3 00:41 0 2 00:45 0 0
19 UPSHALL, SCOTTIE 13:35 2 3 00:17 0 0 01:41 0 0
22 PARROS, GEORGE 07:45 2 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
23 STRACHAN, TYSON 14:48 3 5 00:00 0 0 01:17 0 0
27 BJUGSTAD, NICK 14:36 3 3 00:17 0 0 00:00 0 0
35 MARKSTROM, JACOB 15 14 0 3 0 2
42 HOWDEN, QUINTON 09:55 1 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
43 WEAVER, MIKE 19:24 6 6 00:17 0 0 02:43 0 2
51 CAMPBELL, BRIAN 22:54 6 3 01:19 0 1 01:21 0 0
57 GOC, MARCEL 14:10 4 4 01:02 0 1 01:45 0 2
72 PETROVIC, ALEX 19:17 6 3 00:41 0 2 00:00 0 0
76 SELLECK, ERIC 08:03 3 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
82 KOPECKY, TOMAS 14:50 5 5 01:02 0 1 01:39 0 2
88 MUELLER, PETER 16:16 6 5 00:41 0 2 00:05 0 0


Credit for this data goes to Josh Weissbock for authoring the application used to track it.

2 thoughts on “Game 48 Scoring Chances: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers

    • That is a great question, Ken.

      The short answer is yes.

      The long answer, however, is that tracking scoring chances is already a very tedious, time-consuming task. I have to re-watch each game with my finger on the trigger of the pause button, carefully rewinding and re-watching certain plays to make sure what I just watched was truly an event that ought to be recorded.

      Adding another element to record — in this case, which zone each scoring chance originates from — would certainly be a worthwhile endeavor, but one that might make the process too difficult, especially since it would significantly increase the backtracking through the game I have to do to make sure I find the zone of origin of each chance.

      So, I can certainly try in the future. But, unfortunately, I can make no guarantees.

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